MODELING CHOLERA TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS AND CONTROL STRATEGIES IN HUMAN, ANIMAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS

Abstract

Cholera, an acute diarrheal disease caused by Vibrio cholerae, remains a major global health concern, particularly in regions with limited access to clean water and adequate sanitation. Despite numerous public health interventions, outbreaks continue to emerge, underscoring the need for more comprehensive approaches to understanding and controlling the disease. This study extends the existing mathematical models by incorporating an often-overlooked ecological vector (fish) into the cholera transmission cycle. Adopting a One Health framework that integrates human, animal, and environmental health, the model captures the dynamics of cholera transmission among human populations, aquatic reservoirs, and fish. Using the next-generation matrix method, we derive the basic reproduction number to assess outbreak potential. The analysis indicates that disease extinction is achievable when , whereas sustained transmission and potential outbreaks occur when . Sensitivity analysis identifies key transmission drivers, including direct human-to-human contact, interaction with contaminated water sources, and ecological links involving fish. Simulations evaluate the effectiveness of various intervention strategies. Results demonstrate that integrated approaches, combining treatment and public health campaigns, substantially reduce disease prevalence. These findings highlight the critical importance of including environmental and animal vectors in cholera modeling and control strategies. By employing a One Health lens, this study contributes to a more nuanced understanding of cholera dynamics and supports the development of more effective, cross-sectoral intervention policies.