Climate Vulnerability and Local Response: An LVI-IPCC Assessment of the Climate Emergency in Gombe LGA, Gombe State, Nigeria

Abstract

Climate change constitutes an escalating environmental and socio-economic emergency in 
semi-arid regions where livelihoods are intrinsically dependent on climate-sensitive natural 
resources. Gombe Local Government Area (LGA), Gombe State, northeastern Nigeria, 
exemplifies the combined impacts of rising temperatures, increasing rainfall variability, 
and ecological degradation, all of which intensify household vulnerability. This study 
employed the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and its Intergovernmental Panel on 
Climate Change (IPCC)-aligned framework (LVI-IPCC) to quantify climate vulnerability and 
evaluate local adaptation responses. A mixed-methods approach integrated climatic trend 
analysis (1981–2025), a household survey of 400 randomly selected respondents across 
ten wards, 25 key informant interviews, and eight focus group discussions. Climatic 
analysis revealed a statistically significant warming trend of 0.28 °C per decade (p < 0.01), 
accompanied by increased rainfall variability (coefficient of variation = 24%) and a 
progressively shortening growing season. Household vulnerability was primarily driven by 
high climate exposure, particularly recurrent floods and droughts, and elevated sensitivity 
resulting from water insecurity (LVI component score = 0.672) and food insufficiency 
(0.588). Adaptive capacity remained constrained by limited household assets and weak 
institutional support systems. The composite LVI-IPCC score of 0.32 indicates moderate
to-high climate vulnerability, with Shamaki, Pantami, and Jekadafari wards identified as 
the most vulnerable. Local adaptation strategies were predominantly autonomous, including 
crop diversification (79%), livelihood diversification (72%), dry-season farming (41%), and 
migration (54%), although many households continued to adopt erosive coping mechanisms. 
Institutional responses remain fragmented, underfunded, and inadequately coordinated. 
The study recommends establishing a local climate desk, implementing community-based 
adaptation planning, integrating climate services into agricultural extension, and creating 
a dedicated local climate fund. The proposed framework provides a replicable methodology 
for sub-national climate vulnerability assessment and supports evidence-based 
implementation of Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contributions.