Mathematical Modeling of Epidemic Spread with Dynamically Optimized ‎Triple-Control Strategies

Abstract

This study analyses a complete SEIQRD model, which stands for Susceptible Exposed, Infected, Quarantined, Recovered and Deceased. The SEIQRD model is combined with control theory to give a clear picture of how the disease spreads and how it can be stopped. To stop the outbreak while also keeping economic life safe the SEIQRD study introduces three time‑dependent intervention strategies. The first intervention strategy is vaccination. The second intervention strategy is treatment. The third intervention strategy is quarantine protocols. Each of these intervention strategies is adjusted over time to fit the situation. Using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle the SEIQRD study derives an optimality system that aims to reduce the number of infections and keep intervention costs. Extensive numerical simulations and a Cost‑Effectiveness Analysis show that a combined optimized triple‑control strategy does far better than using a single intervention. The triple‑control strategy lowers peak infections by, then 96% and keeps healthcare systems operating within safe limits.