Policy and Governance Gaps in Green Hydrogen Development: Implications for Nigeria's Low-Carbon Energy Transition

Abstract

Nigeria’s northern zones receive some of the highest solar irradiance in West Africa, with an estimated annual green hydrogen production potential of 6,271 TWh. Yet, as of 2025, the country had commissioned no green hydrogen facilities. This study examines the policy and institutional factors behind this gap and considers its implications for Nigeria’s transition to a low-carbon energy system. It uses qualitative policy analysis of peer-reviewed research, international agency reports, and Nigerian federal policy instruments published between 2015 and 2025. A four-dimension governance framework, thematic coding, and SWOT analysis are applied to three national instruments: the Energy Transition Plan (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2022), the Climate Change Act (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2021), and the third Nationally Determined Contribution (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2025). Evidence from Morocco, South Africa, Namibia, Egypt, and Kenya provides comparative benchmarks for identifying gaps in Nigeria’s governance framework. The findings suggest that stalled deployment reflects neither inadequate solar resources nor unproven electrolysis technology. Rather, key institutional foundations are missing: a dedicated national hydrogen strategy, hydrogen-specific licensing and certification rules, and financing arrangements capable of mobilizing private investment at the required scale. These gaps reinforce one another: concessional finance needed to close the cost gap depends on governance credibility that has yet to be established. Green ammonia production in the northern states emerges as a promising near-term application, with potential to ease land pressures associated with farmer–herder tensions. The study concludes with six policy recommendations, beginning with adoption of a binding national hydrogen strategy and creation of a blended-finance mechanism. It contributes to low-carbon transition research by showing that, in resource-rich but institutionally constrained states such as Nigeria, governance reform is a precondition for deployment.