Mathematical Modeling of Banditry and Sustainable Pathways to Peace: Optimal Control through SDG-Based Intervention Strategies

Abstract

Banditry has emerged as one of Nigeria’s most urgent security and developmental crises, 
destabilizing communities, disrupting education, undermining livelihoods, and eroding public trust 
in governance. This study develops a student-focused mathematical model that explicitly 
captures the dynamics of banditry while assessing optimal intervention strategies grounded in 
the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In contrast to earlier models that address banditry 
primarily from broad socio-political perspectives, this research foregrounds the vulnerabilities 
of students and educational institutions—demonstrating how persistent insecurity threatens 
human capital development and national progress. The model presented in this study introduces 
three strategic control levers: security and justice enforcement (u₁), education and job creation 
(u₂), and rehabilitation and reintegration programs (u₃). Employing an epidemic-inspired 
compartmental framework, Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, and Forward-Backward Sweep 
numerical simulations, the study evaluates the “banditry reproduction number” across different 
intervention scenarios. Findings reveal that an integrated triple-strategy approach (u₁+u₂+u₃) is 
most effective, rapidly suppressing banditry while fostering long-term reintegration of 
offenders. In contexts constrained by limited resources, the dual strategy combining security 
enforcement with education and employment opportunities (u₁+u₂) emerges as the most practical 
balance, disrupting recruitment pipelines while simultaneously addressing root causes. Numerical 
results highlight key dynamics: enforcement measures reduce the pool of active bandits, 
educational and employment programs block the inflow of new recruits, and rehabilitation 
initiatives channel former offenders into productive and peaceful reintegration. The analysis 
demonstrates that no single measure is sufficient; only coordinated, multi-dimensional strategies 
can dismantle criminal structures, rebuild community resilience, and restore stability. By 
explicitly linking outcomes to SDG 4 (Quality Education), SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic 
Growth), and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions), this research provides a policy
relevant, evidence-based framework for designing sustainable intervention strategies. Beyond 
Nigeria, the model offers broader insights into addressing violent criminality in fragile contexts 
across West Africa, positioning mathematical modeling as a valuable tool for guiding 
peacebuilding and development policy.