Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluation of Decarbonization and Climate Resilience Strategies in Nigeria’s Energy Sector

Abstract

Nigeria’s energy sector constitutes a dual nexus of climate vulnerability and emissions 
intensity, driven predominantly by fossil fuel dependence, infrastructure deficits, and rapidly 
increasing energy demand. This study presents a systematic assessment of federal-level 
climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies within the sector, with emphasis on key 
policy instruments, including the Energy Transition Plan (ETP), Renewable Energy Master Plan 
(REMP), National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change (NASPA-CCN), 
and the National Adaptation Plan (NAP). A qualitative, policy-oriented analytical framework 
was adopted, integrating structured narrative review with comparative policy benchmarking 
against international climate governance frameworks. The analysis evaluates the coherence, 
technical robustness, and implementation efficacy of these policies using criteria such as 
decarbonization potential, institutional capacity, financing mechanisms, and monitoring and 
evaluation (M&E) architecture. Results indicate that while the ETP and REMP articulate 
ambitious decarbonization trajectories—particularly in renewable energy penetration, gas-to
power transition, and energy efficiency optimization—their operationalization is constrained 
by capital scarcity, grid instability, technological gaps, and weak regulatory enforcement. 
Conversely, adaptation frameworks (NASPA-CCN and NAP) provide broad-based resilience 
strategies targeting climate-sensitive energy infrastructure; however, they exhibit limited 
granularity in risk quantification, inadequate integration at subnational levels, and 
underdeveloped performance tracking systems. Despite strong alignment with global 
commitments, including the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), 
systemic barriers—spanning financial, technical, and institutional domains—continue to 
impede effective policy translation into measurable outcomes. The study concludes that 
enhancing policy effectiveness requires the deployment of innovative financing models, 
strengthening of institutional governance structures, integration of data-driven decision
support systems, and inclusive stakeholder participation to achieve a resilient and low-carbon 
energy transition in Nigeria.