Modeling And Simulation of Covid-19 Base Triage Algorithm using Coloured Petri Nets

Abstract

The confirmation of a new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case by the Cross River 
State Ministry of Health, Nigeria, on 17 April 2026 underscores the continued threat 
posed by emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. Although there has been a 
substantial decline in global transmission since the 2019 pandemic. The confirmed case 
involved a Chinese national who arrived in Nigeria on 17 March 2026, subsequently 
developed symptoms, and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, prompting the activation of 
emergency public health response measures. This incident highlights the persistent 
need for robust preparedness, rapid case detection, and efficient triage systems to 
prevent future outbreaks. During the 2019 pandemic, Nigeria recorded 3,155 COVID
19-related deaths, emphasizing the devastating impact of delayed detection and 
response. This study presents the modelling and simulation of a COVID-19-based triage 
algorithm using Coloured Petri Nets (CPN). It formally represents and validates patient 
screening, clinical decision-making, isolation, referral, testing, and treatment 
workflows. The proposed CPN model captures the dynamic behaviour, concurrency, 
synchronization, and resource-sharing characteristics inherent in hospital triage 
processes while enabling formal verification of workflow correctness. Through 
simulation, the model provides a reliable framework for evaluating patient flow, 
optimizing triage decisions, and minimizing delays that could facilitate disease 
transmission. The developed model serves as a decision-support tool for ministries of 
health, hospital management boards, emergency response teams, and frontline 
healthcare workers involved in outbreak preparedness, patient triage, and COVID-19 
case management across Nigeria. Beyond COVID-19, the framework offers a scalable 
and adaptable platform for modelling and evaluating triage processes for future 
infectious disease outbreaks. This would strengthen national public health 
preparedness and emergency response capacity.